28 September, 2021
Wet spring forecast, with La Niña possible
Last week the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) announced its latest El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) outlook has been raised to La Niña watch, indicating we could be in for a wet spring.
While the ENSO is currently neutral, the chance of a La Niña forming during the southern hemisphere spring has increased to around 50% - twice the normal likelihood.
This status change follows cooling in the tropical Pacific Ocean and an increase in the number of climate models suggesting La Niña thresholds may be reached in the coming months.
A La Niña watch is not a guarantee that a La Niña will occur, but it is an indication that some of the typical precursors of an event are in place.
Roughly half the surveyed climate models suggest that an event is likely to develop during the southern hemisphere spring.
Even if a La Niña does not develop, the BOM has forecast above median rainfall for Queensland, with the chance of a wet spring highest in October and lowest in November.