Agricultural
18 May, 2026
Global fertiliser markets softened this week
The Australian Fertiliser Corporation, a Brisbane based company developing domestic urea production, claims that the market is showing promising signs for producers as volatile prices begin to look like they might settle.
“Affordability is now becoming one of the defining forces in global fertiliser markets,” Stein Haugan, CEO of Australian Fertilizer Corporation, said.
“Supply remains constrained across several nutrients, but buyers are increasingly resisting elevated pricing levels, particularly in phosphates and urea.”
Global urea sentiment weakened this week amid increasing uncertainty surrounding Middle East logistics and softer buyer participation following recent Indian procurement activity.
The Strait of Hormuz remains a key concern for global nitrogen markets.
According to reports, approximately 20 fully loaded urea vessels destined for Australia remained stranded in the Arab Gulf, representing an estimated combined cargo volume of up to 600,000 tonnes.
Broader shipping disruption also appears to be escalating, with reports indicating approximately 1,600 vessels and more than 20,000 seafarers remain affected in the region.
Following the recent Indian tender, trading activity across major markets slowed considerably, with affordability concerns increasingly influencing purchasing decisions.
Market participants are also monitoring the potential impact of El Niño conditions across the southern hemisphere, which could affect agricultural demand in key consuming markets including Australia and Thailand.
India is expected to issue another urea import tender in late May or early June.
Total Indian urea imports for the April 2025 to March 2026 campaign reportedly reached a record 10.38 million tonnes, up 4.73 million tonnes year-on-year, while domestic production declined due to reduced LNG availability.
Global phosphate markets remain fundamentally tight, though buyer resistance is becoming increasingly evident as affordability pressures intensify.
India’s IPL issued an unprecedented tender for 1.2 million tonnes of DAP and 400,000 tonnes of TSP, drawing offers from 18 suppliers for more than 2.3 million tonnes of DAP.
Lowest DAP offers were reported at approximately USD 930/t CFR West Coast India and USD 935/t CFR East Coast India, substantially above previous business concluded near USD 865/t CFR.
Despite the unusually large volume offered, uncertainty remains as to whether Indian importers will accept pricing at current levels.
Rumours of a potential easing in Chinese export restrictions emerged during the week, though no official confirmation has been provided.
Market participants are closely monitoring upcoming meetings between Chinese authorities and major phosphate producers.
Potash prices continued to strengthen modestly, supported by tighter supply conditions and resilient demand in key markets.
Brazilian MOP values widened slightly to approximately USD 400-410/t CFR, although resistance above the upper end of the range is becoming increasingly apparent as distributors and farmers moderate purchasing activity.
Global ammonia markets remained firm, although trading activity in the Atlantic basin was subdued due to European holidays.
Global fertiliser markets are entering an increasingly fragmented phase, with affordability pressures now emerging alongside supply disruption as a major pricing driver.
Nitrogen markets appear vulnerable to short-term downside pressure if demand remains subdued, while phosphates continue to face a standoff between tight supply and buyer resistance.
Potash remains comparatively well supported due to relative affordability, while ammonia markets continue to reflect structural tightness east of Suez. Key variables are:
• Strait of Hormuz disruption
• India tender activity
• China export policy
• Iranian sanctions developments
• Farmer affordability and seasonal demand conditions
“The market is no longer moving in a single direction across all nutrients...creating a far more fragmented and unpredictable global fertiliser environment.”” Mr Haugan said.
